Pattullo Bridge replacement is one of a group of major construction projects due to begin in B.C. (Black Press Media)

Big construction projects to drive big migration to B.C. in 2020

Forestry, housing to slow growth, says credit union forecast

Pipelines, LNG Canada, the Pattullo Bridge replacement and a new Vancouver subway are all set to drive a big increase in interprovincial migration to B.C. starting next year, Central 1 Credit Union says in its latest economic forecast.

Coupled with Site C dam construction that is reaching its peak, these major projects are expected to help push interprovincial migration into B.C. from 3,400 people this year to more than 12,000 in 2020, says the organization representing credit unions in B.C. and Ontario.

B.C.’s economic growth is leading the country, and the pace of growth is expected to slow from 2.7 per cent in 2019 to near one per cent by 2020, according to the forecast.

While internal signs for B.C. are strong, global economic conditions continue to cast a shadow. A U.S.-China trade war with Canada entangled, American trade actions against softwood lumber and turmoil in the European Union with the impending exit of Britain are risk factors in the coming years.

Housing construction continues at a fast pace, with a record second quarter for B.C. housing starts, but that is mainly a result of pre-sale condos in earlier years, said Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist for Central 1.

“Home ownership demand, owing to federal mortgage stress tests and provincial government tax measures, has dragged the resale market into recession-like conditions since early 2018, with price levels adjusting lower accordingly, says B.C. Economic Outlook 2019-2022. “Metro Vancouver is at the centre of the market correction, with sales trending at 2012 levels and price declines nearly 10 per cent from peak.”

RELATED: B.C. housing market slows, prices fall in 2019

RELATED: B.C. mayors call for federal forest industry aid

Other limiting factors are the ongoing slump in the B.C. forest industry and the availability of skilled labour as people retire in greater numbers. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to four per cent in the coming years.

Are there going to be enough skilled people in the rest of Canada to move to B.C. for jobs? Yu says there are.

“The economic conditions are relatively slower in Alberta at the current time, and with these major projects we do see a strong labour market in B.C.,” Yu said in an interview with Black Press. “There are always concerns about affordability issues in the [urban] region.”

Workers and their families are part of a wider trend in B.C. population growth, with international immigrants being the main source. From 2019 to 2021, B.C. is forecast to grow by an average of 60,000 people annually, driving significant demand in retail consumption and housing.


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislature

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Separate trials set for 2018 Kelowna Canada Day killing

Four people have been charged with manslaughter in relation to Esa Carriere’s death, including two youths

Tough time for tree fruits as some B.C. farm products soar

Province reports record 2019 sales, largely due to cannabis

Parkinson Recreation Centre reopening to members

The pool and the gym areas will remain closed at this time

Province agrees to multimillion-dollar payout for alleged victims of Kelowna social worker

Robert Riley Saunders is accused of misappropriating funds of children — often Indigenous — in his care

COVID-19 cases at Oliver farm likely linked to Kelowna outbreak, says Interior Health

A team of doctors, nurses and health investigators are at the Krazy Cherry Farm to test employees

21 new COVID-19 cases confirmed in B.C. as virus ‘silently circulates’ in broader community

Health officials urge British Columbians to enjoy summer safely as surge continues

Kootnekoff: New workplace harassment and violence requirements

Susan Kootnekoff is the founder of Inspire Law, her diverse legal career spans over 20 years.

Dyer: Buying an electric car

Kristy Dyer is a columnist for Black Press Media who writes about the environment

Summerland Museum to hold walking tours

Community’s past will be explained during series of summer tours

Summerland mayor asks for community conversation following racist vandalism

Home of Indo-Canadian family in Summerland was targeted on evening of July 13

HERGOTT: Goodbye column

Paul Hergott is taking a break from writing for Black Press

Lake Country motorhome fire deemed suspicious

Vehicle found fully engulfed Tuesday, July 14, just before 8:30 p.m.

COLUMN: A problem with the WE charity

Federal ethics commissioner investigating Trudeau for the third time

B.C. businessman David Sidoo gets 3 months behind bars for college admissions scam

Sidoo was sentenced for hiring someone take the SATs in place of his two sons

Most Read