The mountain pine beetle may not be the only undesirable species to exploit warming temperatures in B.C. as a result of projected climate change.

The mountain pine beetle may not be the only undesirable species to exploit warming temperatures in B.C. as a result of projected climate change.

Scientists project warmer, wetter winters for B.C.

Climate change forecasts point to earlier runoff, potential summer water supply problems

Climate change will likely mean warmer, rainier winters in B.C. as well as reduced summer stream flows, a forum in Vancouver heard Monday as new international findings were released.

Dr. Francis Zwiers, director of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) and vice-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group 1, said projections for B.C. point to further warming of 2.9 degrees in the winter and 2.4 degrees in the summer by 2100, under a moderate carbon emission scenario.

Winter warming on that scale could translate into 17 to 51 more days per year of frost-free conditions, he told the forum, in the wake of the already measured reduction of 24 annual frost days since 1900 and a 2.1-degree increase in the province’s winter temperatures.

While a longer growing season might be a boon to gardeners and farmers, Zwiers noted warming winters have also allowed unwanted species like the mountain pine beetle to flourish and wreak havoc on Interior forests.

“That’s an impact that has been linked to a changing climate,” Zwiers said.

“You can just imagine there would be many other organisms that would find B.C. to be a much more hospitable place to live, even in a slightly warmer climate than we have at the moment, or a slightly wetter climate than we have at the moment.”

PCIC researchers projected climate changes in B.C. over the rest of this century using the same models as the IPCC.

Winter warming would be greater in the northeast than other parts of the province, while summer warming projections are roughly uniform.

Zwiers said the modeling shows winter, spring and fall precipitation will increase in B.C., with a 10 per cent increase in precipitation in winters expected and summers potentially getting wetter in the north but drier in the south.

Wetter, warmer winters could affect the province’s supply of water for drinking, farming, power generation and salmon migration.

With less water being stored as snow over the winter, Zwiers said, B.C. can expect higher amounts of winter and spring runoff, leaving less behind in the upper elevations to deliver water in summer.

The new IPCC report reiterated that the planet is warming and people are the probable cause.

But some observers criticized it for downgrading projected temperature increases due to a 15-year “pause” in average surface temperature rise.

Zwiers maintained human influence is clear and action is urgently needed to both reduce emissions and adapt to expected “substantial” impacts.

The IPCC report predicts Canada will face more warming than the global average, along with more frequent and more intense extreme weather events.

Kelowna Capital News

Just Posted

(Dave Ogilvie photo)
One injured after being pinned by fallen forklift near Peachland

West Kelowna emergency crews responded to reports of a person stuck under a forklift

(Big White Ski Resort/Contributed)
Big White’s big clean-up: Large turnout for post-melt mountain tidy

More than 165 people showed up to help gather the litter left behind from the winter season

Mounties cover a burgundy truck with a tent at Buckerfields in West Kelowna on Monday, June 14. The RCMP is investigating after a woman’s body was found inside the truck. (Amandalina Letterio/Capital News)
West Kelowna RCMP investigating suspicious death after body found in truck

Police responded to a truck parked out front of a Main Street business where the body was found

(Jenna Cocullo / The Northern View)
Delays expected on Lakeshore Road this week

Northbound traffic on Lakeshore between Richter and Barrera will be detoured for paving

David Larsen, left, and co-host Tony Peyton. (K96.3/Twitter)
Popular Kelowna radio host dies after battle with cancer

David Larsen was half of the longtime Kelowna morning-show duo David and Tony

Singer-songwriter Jann Arden is pictured with a draft horse. (Canadian Horse Defence Coalition)
Jann Arden backs petition to stop live horse export

June 14 is the International Day to End Live Export of Animals

Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price (31) is scored on by Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez, not pictured, during the second period in Game 1 of an NHL hockey Stanley Cup semifinal playoff series Monday, June 14, 2021, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Habs fall 4-1 to Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 of NHL semifinal series

Match was Montreal’s first game outside of Canada in 2021

Penticton Overdose Prevention Society co-founders Desiree Franz, Shane Surowski and Stephanie Lines have created the city’s first unsanctioned public overdose prevention site using an old wine-tour bus. The site began operations in June 2021. (Desiree Franz/Facebook)
Volunteers launch Penticton’s first public supervised injection site

2021 is on pace to be the deadliest year for overdoses in Penticton on record

Kelowna-Lake Country MLA Norm Letnick, assistant deputy speaker at the B.C. legislature, presides over committee discussions. The legislature is completing its delayed spring session this week, with most MLAs participating by video conference. (Hansard TV)
B.C.’s daily COVID-19 infections dip below 100 over weekend

Only 68 new cases recorded Monday, four additional deaths

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

B.C. ambulance station in Revelstoke is expected to get a new system called the Scheduled On-Call (SOC) this fall. (Liam Harrap - Revelstoke Review)
B.C. ambulance changes could put Revelstoke residents at risk, warn local paramedics

Paramedics said to expect a substantial increase in ambulance response time starting this fall

Jane Linden
KCR: Volunteering keeps you active

Kelowna Community Resources shares stories of its volunteers in a weekly column

This goose family went for a leisurely stroll down Vernon’s Main Street Saturday, April 25. (Dave Deshane photo)
Controversial Vernon goose cull won’t fly this year

Necessary permit procedures held up at a federal level

The BC Ferries website went down for a short while Monday morning following a provincial announcement that recreational travel between health authorities can resume Tuesday. (Black Press Media file photo)
BC Ferries’ website crashes in wake of provincial reopening announcement

Website back up now, recreational travel between health regions to resume as of Tuesday

Most Read