UPDATE: UBC economist says election result unlikely to shift after absentee ballots counted

Correction of BC Elections transcription error means neither NDP or BC Liberal likely to flip seats

This story has been updated to reflect the correction of a transcription error by BC Elections.

A UBC economist says there’s only a 10 per cent chance that absentee ballots and recounts turn a minority legislature into a BC Liberal majority.

Kevin Milligan used past changes between preliminary vote counts and final vote counts to calculate that there is a 62.4 per cent chance that the current result holds, with the BC Liberals winning 43 ridings, the NDP holding 41 and the Greens keeping three seats and the balance of power.

While the NDP only claimed the Courtenay-Comox riding by nine votes, Milligan found that – because absentee ballots tend to favour the NDP – it’s unlikely the riding will flip for the BC Liberals.

Milligan’s original analysis on Thursday suggested it was actually more likely that the riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain would flip from the BC Liberals to the NDP. But that was based on preliminary results that turned out to be incorrect. BC Elections said Friday morning that the gap in votes in that riding was actually larger than originally thought.

Milligan posted a series of tweets Thursday, then wrote a blog post summarizing his findings.


@ty_olsen
tolsen@abbynews.com

Just Posted

Community Leader Awards: Anja Dumas

The Kelowna Capital News puts the spotlight on community leaders with annual awards

Sagmoen neighbours recall alleged hammer attack

Woman was screaming outside Maple Ridge townhouse in 2013

Blowing snow, slippery sections on Okanagan Connector

Compact snow, poor visibility on Highway 97 from Pennask Summitt to Brenda Mines.

IH adds immunization clinic Sunday in Kelowna

Drop-in meningococcal vaccination clinic on today at Community Health & Services Centre

Fire crews investigating oil sheen on Penticton Creek

Fire crews are working to contain the oil from spreading

REPLAY: B.C. this week in video

In case you missed it, here’s a look at replay-worthy highlights from across the province this week

Family suspends search for missing Alberta couple, plane near Revelstoke

Due to bad weather, families of missing Albertan couple say they will resume in the spring

Fire crews investigating oil sheen on Penticton Creek

Fire crews are working to contain the oil from spreading

UBCO prof tests software to help cancer patients

Program may help those reluctant to engage ‘tough conversations’ in advance care planning

Broken de-icer delays flights at Kelowna airport

Passengers were on board for three hours Sunday waiting for departure to Vancouver

Canadian grocers make $3M per year from penny-rounding: UBC study

Ottawa announced plans in 2012 to phase out the copper coin

Well-known Canadian bird making a comeback

Once on the brink of extinction, the peregrine falcon no longer considered at risk in Canada.

Suzuki: Shine a light during dark times

People need to remain positive despite difficult and unpredictable political climate

Most Read