There’s a strong likelihood that Kelowna-Lake Country will be won by the Conservatives in the upcoming federal election, according to the latest projections by 338Canada, a national poll tracking website.
The polls show Conservative candidate Tracy Gray is projected to win 43 per cent of the popular vote, while the incumbent Liberal candidate Stephen Fuhr is projected to get 33.4 per cent of the vote.
The Green Party’s candidate, Travis Ashley, and the NDP’s candidate, Justin Kulik, are neck-and-neck, projected to win 10.2 and 9.3 per cent respectively.
John Barr, of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), is projected to take 3.4 per cent of the popular vote.
Based on these projections, which were published on the 338Canada website on Oct. 2, there is a 91.8 per cent chance that Gray will win the election on Oct. 21, returning Kelowna-Lake Country to the Conservatives after just one term as a Liberal riding.
While Fuhr acknowledged the polling numbers, he said they don’t line up with what he’s been hearing on the doorstep.
“That’s exactly what that poll said at this point in 2015,” said Fuhr.
“It’s not consistent with what I’m seeing out in the community. If you were to go look at other poll aggregates you would find radically different numbers than that.”
Gray said she’s not concerning herself with advance polls.
“The polls that are important are the polls from the constituents that vote on Election Day,” she said.
Elsewhere in the Okanagan, 338Canada’s polls are showing a blue wave across the region, including South Okanagan-West Kootenay, which is currently leaning Conservative despite previously being an NDP riding.
Chances are also slim that the ridings of Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola and North Okanagan-Shuswap will change hands.
The province as a whole appears to be leaning towards the Conservatives, with the party projected to win 32.6 per cent of the popular vote, according to the polls.
The Liberals sit more than five percentage points behind with 27.1 per cent, while the NDP has a slight edge for third place with 18.1 per cent.
The Green Party currently sits in fourth place with 17.8 per cent of the projected vote.
The PPC sits last among the larger parties with 3.2 per cent of the popular vote province-wide.